Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 262127 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 527 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z. MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF EXPECTED PRECIP. TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY... SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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