Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160805 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 405 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY AND COMFORTABLE START TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE RUNNING INTO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. THINK A SLOWER APPROACH TO BEGINNING THE SHOWERS IS THE WAY TO GO. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS BY TOMORROW EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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