Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 050105 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 905 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS... BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG FRONT IN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY BECOME HUNG UP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA. AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LIKELY POPS...AND CHC POPS SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH PUSH TUESDAY FOR FRONT TO BACKDOOR TO KPIT FOR LIKELY POPS WITH CHC POPS SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY MAINLY FROM KPIT NORTHWARD WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY BUT EXACT PLACEMENT STILL UNCERTAIN...AS WELL HAS WHERE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SET UP. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS MID WEEK FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK BACK UP THE RIDGES THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW AND HAVE LEFT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BUT LESS SO FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE COOL ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NERN CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. AGGRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION /WITH H9 TEMPS REACHING 20-22C/ IS INDICATED IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MAXIMA IN THE 80S AND MINIMA IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WARM AIR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO FUEL OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ANY SUCH STORMS WILL BE TIMED WITH SUBTLE WAVES THAT ARE NOT RESOLVED PARTICULARLY WELL BY THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THUS...POPS IN THIS FORECAST FOLLOW A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND AND ARE FOCUSED HIGHEST IN PROXIMITY TO LARGER-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITION. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHOWERS THAT HAVE APPROACHED FROM THE WEST WERE ABLE TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...HENCE TAFS WERE ADJUSTED BY INCLUDING MENTION OF SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORIATE TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CROSS THE REGION. BRIEF IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFKL TUESDAY. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IS A POSSIBILITY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DECAYS.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/24

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