Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190545 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 145 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY BEGINNING TO THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER IN REFERENCE TO THE CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND MODIFIED TEMPERATURES TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE. LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY THIS EVENING WERE MAINTAINED WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POTENTIAL LLWS CONDITIONS UNTIL GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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