Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160215 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1015 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERSITENT MOIST LAYER ABOVE 500MB BEFORE MID/LOWER LEVELS INCREASE TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE...LEFT FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES UNCHANGED AS THEY ARE STILL ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY RIDE ALONG THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EAST TOMORROW...BRINGING A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT. THE LATEST BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO THUNDER WAS KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. TROUGH WILL EXIT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY END THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE SHOWERS MAKE IT IN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DAMP PERIOD WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS BY TOMORROW EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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