Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280624 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 224 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. JUST SOME TWEAKING OF THE CLOUDS AND AN UPDATE OF TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL...BUT WILL MODIFY COMPARED TO WHAT WAS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. WITH AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AND THE ABSENCE OF MONDAY`S COLD AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEATHER REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON WHERE AND WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. EXPECT MANY CHANGES TO THURSDAY`S FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE THE EXTENDED A FORECAST CHALLENGE. MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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