Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171518 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... LAST REMAINING SHOWERS CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS EAST. EXPECTING SOME MODEST RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LINE EAST OF MORGANTOWN...BEFORE ALL SHOWERS PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS STILL PREVALENT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...LEADING TO GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR NEAR SUNSET. WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT IS BOLSTERED BY A MORE POTENT HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS WELL AS RIDGING ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TAX && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION... TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF ALL OF THE TERMINALS AS OF MID MORNING. SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REMAIN AT KFKL AND KDUJ...BUT FURTHER SOUTH MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD VFR. AN IMPROVEMENT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH VFR ANTICIPATED AT MOST SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NW FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE HOWEVER. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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