Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 032345 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 745 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON STARTING TRENDS OUT CLOSER TO THE HIGHLY VARIED TEMPERATURE FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A NON-UNIFORMING MIXING PROFILE TODAY DUE TO WEAK MOMENTUM IN THE MIXED LAYER...HIGHS HAVE VARIED GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CWA. GOING INTO TONIGHT...VERY STRONG INVERSIONS ARE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND AS A RESULT...THERMAL BELTS IN THE RIDGES WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE GRIDS TREMENDOUSLY. THIS HAD A BIG IMPACT ON THE RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...MAKING THEM VERY POOR IN THE RIDGES. LIKEWISE...GOING INTO MONDAY...LAYER MOMENTUM BELOW THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES DRASTICALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE DEWPOINT VALUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A MORE UNIFORM MIXED PROFILE. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO DIFFICULTY IN SKYROCKETING DURING THE MORNING BEFORE A MORE PERVASIVE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POPS INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRANSITIONING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT IMPROVED MOISTURE...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING...AND AFTERNOON WARMTH MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND DUSK AND BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PICKS UP MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HILL TOP AIRPORTS COULD ECLIPSE 20KTS...WHILE MOST AIRPORTS WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAIN SPEEDS AROUND 12KTS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING HIGH BASED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A TUESDAY FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...98

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