Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151527 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1127 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS RETURN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LITTLE TO CHANGE AS OF THE MID MORNING UPDATE. MAINLY ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES BASED OFF OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. WHILE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING...ENE WIND AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY. HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT BUT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. LOWS WERE KEPT NEAR MOS VALUES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT MODEL DATA IS NOT INDICATING MUCH OF A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. MID AND LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE SHOWERS MAKE IT IN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DAMP PERIOD WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A CROSSING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHUNT UPPER MOISTURE OVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWER...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AS THE HIGH ERODES AND RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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