Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230408 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1208 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE INCLUDED SOME UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FLOW CONT TO SUPPORT SNOW...AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGE WAS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I 80 WHICH NOW FEATURES LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...NO REAL CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING...DEVELOPS EASTWARD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED INTO THE BASE OF THAT TROUGH LATER TODAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND RESULTING MIXING LAYER. SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE THUS MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING. HAVE PERSISTED WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS DRY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THAT HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO MIDWESTERN TROUGHING. THAT TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE NEW ENGLAND LOW...HENCE RESULTING IN A REINFORCED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. INITIAL PRECIP ONSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW PROGGED FOR A LATER SATURDAY START AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL THUS INVOLVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER EXIT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE AVERAGES. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE...MAINLY NORTH OF I 80 AND HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR FKL AND DUJ. WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS THURSDAY ALSO. .OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.