Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 182238 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 638 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER WITH CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE. LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...AND HOLD HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THAT CUMULATE IN CATEGORICAL NUMBERS BY SUNDAY EVE WERE MAINTAINED...THEN DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WARM FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PROGRESS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND MAY PROMOTE MODEST HEATING OF A RELATIVELY-MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 45-50KT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE DAY. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT DISTURBANCE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WERE MAINTAINED FOR THAT SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OWING TO PROGNOSIS OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE INCREASED COVERAGE OF STRATOCU AND POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THAT LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH EXPECTATIONS OF WESTERLY FETCH AND DRY ADVECTION.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY SE WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A MID WEEK UPPER TROUGH.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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