Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011439 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1039 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SHOWERS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WITH 1030AM UPDATE HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER TRENDS WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH OF THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA. HAVE ALSO UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SLIGHTLY WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR ALL MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIDGES...HAVE TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT FOR POPS...KEEPING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH HEIGHTS/THICKNESS INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS BUT 00Z RUNS SHOW BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BUT AT THIS POINT CANNOT RULE OUT ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RIDGING WILL PUMP UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THAT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TREND UP FURTHER...WITH GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING VALUES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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IFR...MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD WILL IMPROVE AS THE MORNING...AND SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESS. DRY ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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