Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150032 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 832 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFTER A QUICK GLANCE AT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY (OR OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS) IT WOULD BE EASY TO ASSUME PERSITENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER WHERE RETURNS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20-25DBZ FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE SURELY HAS BEEN A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE...THE AREA HAS REMAINED LARGELY DRY WITH MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE MID LEVELS...EVIDENT BY LOCAL CAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES. WITH THAT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT FEW TO SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAIN BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW 40S...RECOVERING TO THE MID 60S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...THURSDAY...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PUSH EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMING AND MOISTENING THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS ALSO PROGGED TO SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SUPPORT SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD DRY THE AREA AGAIN BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LONG TERM GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED SHARPLY IN THE LAST 24HRS AND AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS WANED. MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DIAGNOSING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND EJECTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WILL STAY CLOSER THE ECMWF/CMC/NAEFS SOLUTION THAT HOLDS THE LOW BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISLODGING AND PHASING WITH A NORTHERN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF MGW TONIGHT AS DRYING LOW LEVELS INHIBIT RESTRICTION INDUCING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VFR WILL THUS PREDOMINATE WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS DIMINISHING WITH THE EXITING DISTURBANCE BY WEDNESDAY. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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