Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181027 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 627 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW.. VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE. BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT LBE AND MGW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING ROUGHLY ONE HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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