Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180803 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 403 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY NICE DAY SETTING UP WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL PUSH TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT... ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...THE WARM SECTOR WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT...REDUCING SHOWER CHANCES AND COVERAGE. BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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