Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 060202 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1002 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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BRUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED AS CONDITIONS STABILIZE INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON WEDNESDAY ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH AND OVERDONE AREA COVERAGE IN THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. HAVE WARMED TEMPS TOWARD NEWEST GUIDANCE AS HEIGHTS RISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SPOTTY...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. ENERGY EJECTS FROM A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY. RESULTING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD WITH TIME...PERHAPS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS GET A BIT HIGHER EACH DAY WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. RIPPLES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT...WHICH OF COURSE ARE TOUGH TO TIME AT THIS DISTANCE. THE FRONT BRINGS MORE GENERALIZED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY STATIC ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF 60. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE STABILIZED AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT FKL AND DUJ. EVEN THEN...FEEL THAT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE LATEST TAF. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MVFR AT THE MOST. ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF AS MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND LAMP TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DECREASE THE CHANCES OF VIS RESTRICTIONS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION AT ANY INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MORNING FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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