Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200129 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 929 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE ADVANCE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OH/PA BORDER. A LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO KEEP GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH THIS EVENING IN THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST LAMP AND GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS. THEREAFTER...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND PERSIST FOR SOME TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH... THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE NORTH OF PIT. A WEAK IMPULSE MAINLY AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A FEW SHRA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT...MORE ORGANIZED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE. BEHIND THE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN NORTH OF PIT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS FORESEEN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH VALUES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PERIODIC UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CONDITION DEGRADATION CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREADS RAIN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MVFR IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE. A BREAK IN PRECIP...AND RESTRICTIONS...IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL MAR THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR WIND...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION RELAXES THE GUST POTENIAL SOMEWHAT. A GRADUAL DIRECTION VEER TO THE SOUTH...AND EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE SETTLES JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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