Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161817 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS TAKEN EAST OF THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE 40S BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO RAP UP IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH HELP FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES. TRIED TO FOLLOW THE SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILES WITH TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE A BUT MORE PESSIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE VERY BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY MAY BE EXPECTED IN THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS...OPTED TO NOT CARRY THIS AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE AND WILL COVER WITH TEMPOS AS NEEDED. A ESE TO WSW WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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