Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 312122 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 522 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEDNESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THURSDAY...BEFORE A WET WEATHER SYSTEM CLOSES OUT THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 530PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING CURRENT RADAR PICS AND HRRR DATA. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SURFACE LOW DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN PA INTO THE APPALACHIANS CURRENTLY...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH PIT. STEADIER PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHRA ARE FIRING IN MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT THESE TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THE THUNDER CHANCES GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUNSET...WHERE MORE SUN HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY. ONLY EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHRA AROUND 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EVENING. 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH DURING THAT TIME AS WELL. BAND OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. A SHORT PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN MICHIGAN YOOPER COUNTRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12Z. EXPECT THIS TO MANIFEST MAINLY IN THE FORM OF REINFORCED CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH JUICE TO GET A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY SUNRISE. PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS AT THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONSIDERING THE WIND AND EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... BEYOND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY....EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAME TEMPS. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FKL/DUJ REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 21Z OR THEREAFTER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR LBE/MGW BEFORE 00Z...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. OTHER SITES AT VFR CURRENTLY...BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS IN COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. CIGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR DURING THE NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD REESTABLISH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV AFTER 10Z. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED SHSN. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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