Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030820 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH OFF OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RISING H500 HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE 70S TODAY. GIVEN THE STILL RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED TO SOME FLAT CU AND PATCHES OF CIRRUS. SOME MODELS...THE GFS IN PARTICULAR...CONTINUE TO TRY TO PAINT SOME QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPPING AT 700-750MB HOLDING STRONG...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP INSTABILITY CLOUDS FROM MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOWERING. FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO ACHEIVE A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION TONIGHT ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL COLLAPSE IN THE EVENING...WTIH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN PICTURED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT LATER TONIGHT...ALLOWED TO INVADE BY THE CONTINUING SMOOTHING OF THE RIDGE. MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AND THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH. LEANED A BIT BELOW MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRANSITIONING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER SFC HEATING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RUN OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THESE WILL FADE WITH TIME. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY FLAT CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 6000 FEET WITH SOME CIRRUS ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE W AND SW UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE MIXING COMMENCES. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS COMES TUESDAY WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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