Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 172156 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 556 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE DOWNWARD TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS TEMPS FALL BELOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...WITH INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...NW FLOW IN COOL 850HPA TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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