Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040540 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 140 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON STARTING TRENDS OUT CLOSER TO THE HIGHLY VARIED TEMPERATURE FIELD GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH A NON-UNIFORMING MIXING PROFILE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO WEAK MOMENTUM IN THE MIXED LAYER...HIGHS VARIED GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CWA. GOING INTO TONIGHT...VERY STRONG INVERSIONS ARE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND AS A RESULT...THERMAL BELTS IN THE RIDGES WERE STRENGTHENED IN THE GRIDS TREMENDOUSLY. THIS HAD A BIG IMPACT ON THE RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...MAKING THEM VERY POOR IN THE RIDGES. LIKEWISE...GOING INTO MONDAY...LAYER MOMENTUM BELOW THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES DRASTICALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE DEWPOINT VALUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LIKEWISE ALLOW FOR A MORE UNIFORM MIXED PROFILE. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO DIFFICULTY IN SKYROCKETING DURING THE MORNING BEFORE A MORE PERVASIVE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POPS INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRANSITIONING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT IMPROVED MOISTURE...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING...AND AFTERNOON WARMTH MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MAINTAINING VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME ISSUES START TO CROP UP TOWARDS 06Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH-BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 17-22 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FIRST SHRA SHOULD ARRIVE AT FKL...AND POSSIBLY DUJ...PRIOR TO 06Z. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARISING FROM A FRONTAL INCURSION FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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