Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251328 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 928 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID MORNING UPDATE TO REMOVE SNOW SHOWERS AND ADJUST POPS TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS. BAND OF MIXED PRECIP HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST WITH AREA O0F SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN NOW BEGINNING TO SLOWLY EDGE NORTH AND EAST FROM OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD LIMIT FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEFORMATION TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POP NUMBERS WERE THUS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 76 AS PER PERSISTENCE AND THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS SOLUTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH A QUICK END TO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY IS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A DAY OF IMPROVEMENT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG...BUT MOISTURE DEFICIENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE EARLY ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING FOR PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY INCLUDE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH. WPC GUIDANCE CAPTURES THE TREND OF THE PATTERN SUFFICIENTLY...HENCE ONLY MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THAT FORECAST WERE NEEDED. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH EVENTUAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS. .OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONINUE SOUTH OF PIT TONIGHT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE. RESTRICITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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