Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260406 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1206 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR MIDNIGHT UPDATE. PREVIOUS... LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT...AND EXIT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF I 70 INTO EASTERN OH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND DIMINISH AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ERODES THE MOISTURE...AND THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WV/MD TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S...AND MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THERE THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NUDGED TEMPS TO THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING...WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY...SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADDED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT HAS SPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND SW PA...BUT DRIER AIR ACROSS NW PA HAS LIMITED THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. EXPECT THE RAIN TO GET NO FURTHER NORTH THAN BTP...SO STILL EXPECT FKL/DUJ TO REMAIN DRY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP AT LOCATION SUCH AS PIT...AGC...AND LBE. MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LIKE ZZV AND MGW WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY SUNRISE AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK AND LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE N/NE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/22

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