Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020544 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 144 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO RULE THE ROOST IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ALREADY TAKING CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE REGION. ON THE HEELS OF NORTHERLY FLOW...SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS ARE BEING FILTERED SOUTHWARD. ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY...SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING IN ALL SECTORS OF THE CWA. THE RESULT LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING OFF FROM THE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT...OWING TO DEWPOINTS ALREADY FALLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S IN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A CONTINUATION OF THE WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS...SUNNY SKIES AGAIN SEEM TO BE IN STORE. LIKEWISE...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LACK OF LOW LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO TODAY...A MIX OUT TO 850 MB SEEMS LIKELY. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL AGAIN JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP PAST 8C. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WELL AS RAISING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES. MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL SOME UNDERSTANDABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS MOVE IN...CONSIDERING THE ARRIVAL IS STILL 3 DAYS OUT. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BY MONDAY HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S IN ALL LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF AS A CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED OVER THE WEST STATES WITH RIDGE INFLATION FOR POINTS EAST. A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS INCLUDED LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY CIRRUS MAY BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AND SOME SCATTERED FLAT CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH TUESDAY FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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