Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020416 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1216 AM EDT THU APR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY INCREASING CLOUDS BY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN WARM ADVECTION AND WITH LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM W-E THROUGH THE DAY. PROGGED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AND ONLY A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS FORECAST. MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. WITH A FASTER ONSET OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. THE LAST...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT TO THE EAST WILL COME LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PRESENT...AS SUGGESTED IN THE MODEL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH AND THE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROGGED AREAWIDE...THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD HELP TO MINIMIZE WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ADD ANY CONCERN FOR THIS IN THE HWO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE EXITING. A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP ENDS. ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY NE OF PIT...SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY KEPT A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE NAM AND SREF FOR THE FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST SHIFT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE SITUATION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...SO SLIGHT...TO CHANCE POPS WERE CONFINED TO NORTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR...THEN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN STATES TROUGHING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RISE AS THE WEEK AND TROUGH PROGRESS. THE LONG TERM PROGNOSIS WAS PRIMARILY BASED ON ADJUSTED WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR IS FORECAST UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GENERATES SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED THOUGH AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ABOVE SHALLOW INVERSION AFTER DAYBREAK. THAT PROBLEM IS LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL MIXING INCREASES THE SURFACE WIND LATER IN THE DAY. BY TONIGHT...CONDITION DEGRADATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR...AND PROBABLY EVENTUAL IFR...CAN BE EXPECTED AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE ENCROACHING FRONT. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAIN MAINTAIN RESTRICTIONS INTO SATURDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.