Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 011439
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1039 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SHOWERS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 1030AM UPDATE HAVE UPDATED CLOUD COVER TRENDS WITH LOW CLOUDS
MOVING SOUTH OF THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR SLIGHTLY WHERE SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR ALL
MORNING. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE RIDGES...HAVE TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT FOR
POPS...KEEPING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS INCREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
INCONSISTENT IN THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS BUT 00Z RUNS SHOW BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT. THERE DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE TOO MUCH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK BUT AT THIS POINT CANNOT RULE OUT ANY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RIDGING
WILL PUMP UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. WITH THAT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TREND UP
FURTHER...WITH GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING VALUES
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR...MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD WILL IMPROVE AS THE
MORNING...AND SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESS.

DRY ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A
TUESDAY FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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