Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 022315 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 715 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SUCH THAT WE ARE MIXING OUT QUITE WELL THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIKEWISE ALLOWING FOR THERMALLY-INDUCED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO LIFT THE VERY DRY SURFACE AIR IN ORDER TO MANIFEST SOME FLAT CUMULUS. ALL SAID...THIS AFTERNOON PHENOMENON OF MIXING AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL CURTAIL RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALL CLOUDS WILL BE EVISCERATED...WIND WILL EBB DRASTICALLY...AND THE STAGE WILL LIKELY BE SET FOR BASIC FREE FALL ON TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS DO SEEM POISED TO COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO RELATIVE TO LAST NIGHT...SO LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM MAINLY UNLIKELY...HOWEVER 40S STILL SEEM A GOOD BET IN MANY LOCATIONS. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST WIND TO ADVECT WARM AIR OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE LATE MONDAY AS A BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN LIEU OF THE WARM AIR DISPLACEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM TEMPERATURES...I.E. ABOUT A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH RIDGE INFLATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL...AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND CLOUDS. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING BEFORE RETURNING ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY ONCE MIXING BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY DEEP. OVERNIGHT WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING ONCE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER INVERSION IS ERODED. IN SHORT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NO AVIATION IMPACTS. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS COMES TUESDAY WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FRIES/KRAMAR

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