Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 051855 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 255 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SO THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING. REGION WILL THEN DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY CHC POPS FAR NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAISED MIN TEMPS ACROSS REGION 2 TO 3 DEGREES TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE. ON WEDNESDAY ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH AND OVERDONE AREA COVERAGE IN THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. HAVE WARMED TEMPS TOWARD NEWEST GUIDANCE AS HEIGHTS RISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SPOTTY...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. ENERGY EJECTS FROM A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY. RESULTING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD WITH TIME...PERHAPS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS GET A BIT HIGHER EACH DAY WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. RIPPLES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT...WHICH OF COURSE ARE TOUGH TO TIME AT THIS DISTANCE. THE FRONT BRINGS MORE GENERALIZED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY STATIC ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF 60. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AT FKL AND DUJ. NOT AS CONFIDENT OF SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF HEATING...SO HAVE CHANGED PRECIPITATION FROM VCTS TO VCSH...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT AT LEAST A BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MFR FOG DEVELOPING...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND EARLIER PRECIPITATION...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WOULD LIKELY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST ADDED FOG TO BVI...WHERE FOG FREQUENTLY OCCURS...AND AT FKL/DUJ WHERE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION AT ANY INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MORNING FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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