Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031806 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 206 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CUMULUS WILL DISIPATE IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO PATCHY CIRRUS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO YIELD MID LEVEL RELATIVE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POPS INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRANSITIONING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT IMPROVED MOISTURE...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING...AND AFTERNOON WARMTH MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. EASTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE RIDGE WITH PLAINS TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A TUESDAY FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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