Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010428 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... BEYOND SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WIND SHIFT TO THE SW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WHILE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THINK THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ALLOWED TO DECOUPLE. THUS...OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MOS/ECMWF VALUES AND NOT THE WARMER NAM TEMPS. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT`S APPROACH THURSDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD...DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BRINGING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60`S AND LOWER 70`S ACROSS THE REGION AS 850HPA TEMPS APPROACH +10C. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOW WITH THE BOUNDARY SO VERY LOW POPS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOME OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO JUST KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE WITH THIN CAPE SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN A UPPER WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AND PLACEMENT BUT LIKELY TO LOW-CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM BEING AS WARM AS THEY WERE ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL PORTS UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TOWARD DAWN. SOME MVFR STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE AT NRN TERMINALS WITH THAT FEATURE...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT OTHER PORTS. ALREADY LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER WEST VIRGINIA. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY...AND INTO SATURDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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