Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 051733 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 133 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION. STILL EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF I-70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT IF THIS DOES NOT PAN OUT POPS WILL BE LOWERED MORE WITH NEXT UPDATE. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAISED MIN TEMPS ACROSS REGION 2 TO 3 DEGREES TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND ONLY SPOTTY...MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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UPPER RIDGE GETS SLOWLY DISLODGED WITH TIME AS ENERGY EJECTS FROM WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY. RESULTING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD WITH TIME...PERHAPS ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS GET A BIT HIGHER EACH DAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE. RIPPLES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT...WHICH OF COURSE ARE TOUGH TO TIME AT THIS DISTANCE. THE FRONT BRINGS MORE GENERALIZED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY STATIC ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF 60. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AT FKL AND DUJ. NOT AS CONFIDENT OF SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE REDEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF HEATING...SO HAVE CHANGED PRECIPITATION FROM VCTS TO VCSH...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT AT LEAST A BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MFR FOG DEVELOPING...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND EARLIER PRECIPITATION...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WOULD LIKELY PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST ADDED FOG TO BVI...WHERE FOG FREQUENTLY OCCURS...AND AT FKL/DUJ WHERE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION AT ANY INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MORNING FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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