Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251847 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 247 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A DRY BUT COOL SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... RAIN AREA HAS WORKED INTO KZZV AT 18Z AND WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN OHIO UP TOWARD PITTSBURGH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN GENERAL ON SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY CLOSED LOW SHEARING OUT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A QUICKER END TO RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THEW RIDGES BY 12Z SUNDAY. A BLEND OF MODEL MOS FOR TEMPS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS REGION. SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTH THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. ONLY SMALL WARMING AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADDED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN PORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED AT KMGW AND KZZV EARLY TONIGHT AS CIGS LOWER...OTHERWISE VFR. SYSTEM EXITS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH VFR CIGS. .OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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