Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170528 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 128 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. A DRY AND SEASONABLE BEGINNING TO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID-MORNING...REQUIRING A CONTINUATION OF POPS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY UNTIL IT EXITS. WOULD THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM FULL POTENTIAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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BROAD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IN TONIGHT...WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE PUSHED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS BACK ON SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH. WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION... TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY. SEEING SOME ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREA WILL DRY OUT MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES. THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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