Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 252222 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 622 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH TONIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. RAIN HAS PUSHED NORTH TO THE I 70 CORRIDOR...BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE NORTH OF I 70 HAS LIMITED ITS NORTHWARD PUSH. TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...AND REMOVED POPS GENERALLY FROM BTP NORTH. THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO EXIT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...WITH DECREASING POPS THEREAFTER. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING...WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADDED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH. LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN PORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED AT KMGW AND KZZV EARLY TONIGHT AS CIGS LOWER...OTHERWISE VFR. SYSTEM EXITS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH VFR CIGS. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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