Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 070651 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 251 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING OVERALL LACK OF CLOUDS AS RIDGING ALOFT IS MAXIMIZING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ONLY AREA OF CLOUDS...EVIDENT ON THE IR FOG CHANNEL...IS A BANK OF LOW STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS REMNANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FROM THE WASHED OUT BROAD FRONTAL ZONE THAT WAS IN THE AREA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...IS GETTING DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS STRATUS MAY SLOWLY OOZE WESTWARD ACROSS AND NORTH OF I-80...THROUGH THE PRE- DAWN HOURS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM SURFACE FLOW IS DECOUPLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECTING DEWPOINT SPREADS TO DECREASE AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE. POCKETS OF DRIER AIR MAY HOLD OFF THE FOG...PARTICULARLY NEAR MORGANTOWN OR ZANESVILLE...BUT THE FORECAST REFLECTS FAIRLY GENEROUS FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STICKS AROUND. THE AFOREMENTIONED BANK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG OUR EASTERN EDGE WILL SLOWLY PULL SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE BIRTH TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES OF THE RIDGES...IN A PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE SUMMER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ESSENTIALLY NO FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVELS...INDICATING THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE QUASI-STATIONARY. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN TONIGHT AT OR NEAR SUNSET. ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES. TAX && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE STORY WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH THE AIRMASS GENERALLY REMAINING CONTINENTAL...MEANING LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF...MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...DESPITE THE MODELS SUGGESTING QPF. THUS...ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST AS A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE ABSENT. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO EASTERN OHIO...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW WILL NOT GET TO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL PERSIST...WITH MID TO UPPER 80`S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH MONDAY WITH FRONT CROSSING REGION TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST QUITE CLOSE TO WPC EXTENDED PROGS WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIFR CIGS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO DUJ THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS LINGERING IN NORTH-CENTRAL PA HAS SLOWLY OOZED WESTWARD. AT THE MOMENT EXPECTING FKL TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE STRATUS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND DAWN AS CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS LOWER DEWPOINT SPREADS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT DO OCCUR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS DAYTIME HEATING INITIATES. TAX .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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