Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310719 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 319 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SO FAR OVERNIGHT THE TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE IN THE FORECAST. IMPLICATION WITH THE JOG TO THE NORTH IS THAT WARMER AIR WILL BE PULLED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL IN OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS WELL...CLOSER TO THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. FINALLY...THINK THAT MODELS ONCE AGAIN ARE OVERDOING OVERALL LIFT IN THE STORM...WHICH IS LIKELY CRANKING OUT TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION. IN THE END...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY LOWERING SNOWFALL TOTALS WHERE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER TO THE EAST...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING IN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES WHERE 40-45 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A PASSING RAIN SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. A NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH. MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CANADA. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST...AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH THURSDAY...BUT WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE PASSAGE LATER ON FRIDAY...WITH AN EASTWARD EXIT ON SATURDAY. CHANGES INCLUDE A UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH AS FLAT RIDGING IS ECMWF AND GFS PROGGED TO BUILD AND MODERATE TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH IFR AT FKL AND DUJ AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR WITH RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTS SURROUNDING THE PIT AREA. AS THE LOW CROSSES AROUND MID DAY AND AS SURFACE WARMING AND COOLING ALOFT INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH A DIRECTION VEER TO THE NORTH...NORTHWEST. MVFR STRATOCU ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVE AS COLD ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY EXITING SYSTEM. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE CROSSING OF LOW PRESSURE ON LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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