Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 012319 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 719 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO RULE THE ROOST IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH MUCH MORE STABLE LAKE ERIE INFLUENCED AIR ALREADY FILTERING WELL SOUTH OF THE TYPICAL LAKE BREEZE LOCATIONS. THIS IS STABILIZING MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING. ADDING TO THIS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT ARE BEING FILTERED IN ON SAID NORTHERLY FLOW...ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY...AND THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL FOR BOTH THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA. THEY WILL BOTH BE GONE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING OFF FROM THE READINGS OF LAST NIGHT. A CONTINUATION OF THE WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS...SUNNY SKIES AGAIN SEEM TO BE IN STORE. LIKEWISE...STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LACK OF LOW LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO TODAY...A MIX OUT TO 850 MB SEEMS LIKELY. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL AGAIN JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUMP PAST 8C. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WELL AS RAISING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES. MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL SOME UNDERSTANDABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN SHOWERS MOVE IN...CONSIDERING THE ARRIVAL IS STILL 3 DAYS OUT. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BY MONDAY HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S IN ALL LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF AS A CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED OVER THE WEST STATES WITH RIDGE INFLATION FOR POINTS EAST. A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS INCLUDED LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET...ALONG WITH ANY REMAINING WIND GUSTS. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TAX .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH TUESDAY FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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