Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021631 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1231 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SKY COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE EVENING. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT CIRRUS AND SOME FORMATION OF CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE DEEP MIXING PROFILE AND MODEST HEATING EXPECTATIONS HAVE LED TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPERATURE THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN TRANSITIONING A BOUNDARY SOUTH AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH NOW LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THAT AND CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT...SURFACE BASED LIFT LOOKS LIKELY TO BE CAPPED OFF BETWEEN 6-8KFT AND EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WARM TEMPERATURES...I.E. ABOUT A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH RIDGE INFLATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL...AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND CLOUDS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST TO EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AND VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH TUESDAY FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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