Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230048 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 848 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS MIXED WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THIS EVENING AND AREA OF DRYING WORKS EAST FROM CENTRAL OHIO WITH ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE RIDGES LATER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON NEWEST SAT PIX. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS. ANOTHER COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DECENT CONSENSUS EXISTS ON RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD ERODE LAYER MOISTURE AND ALLOW FOR THE ENDING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IMPROVE. HOWEVER...EVEN AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED...AND OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY COLD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. BY THE WEEKEND...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY. PREVIOUSLY...THE GFS HAD BEEN A NORTHERN OUTLYING SOLUTION. THIS IS NO LONGER THE CASE AS THE CANADIAN/NAM/SREF MEAN HAVE ALL TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS FULLY EXPECTED THE ECMWF WILL LIKELY JOIN THE PACK AT SOME POINT GIVEN THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF OTHER GUIDANCE. POPS WERE INCREASED MARKEDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE GOOD PART ABOUT THIS...THOUGH...IS THAT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE ENOUGH SUCH THAT SNOW WILL NO LONGER BE A PROBLEM. ADDITIONALLY...RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH MEANS WET WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY TO LINGER. FRIES && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH ANY REMAINING RAIN ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAVE LITTLE AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PATTERN FOR THE FINAL TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS WPC NUMBERS WHICH KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR IS EXPECTED FOR FKL/DUJ THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE N OF I 80 AND MAINTAINED AT LEAST A VCSH MENTION FOR FKL/DUJ. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 20-25 KTS THURSDAY ALSO. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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