Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021802 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 202 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE EVENING. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT CIRRUS AND SOME CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE...OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE DEEP MIXING PROFILE AND MODEST HEATING EXPECTATIONS HAVE LED TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPERATURE THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST WIND TO ADVECT WARM AIR OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE LATE MONDAY AS A BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN LIEU OF THE WARM AIR DISPLACEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM TEMPERATURES...I.E. ABOUT A DOZEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW IS PROJECTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH RIDGE INFLATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL...AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND CLOUDS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHWEST TO EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AND VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH TUESDAY FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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