Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170127 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 927 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS GENERALLY MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO OF AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE. HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE DRIER WITH RAIN PASSING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE DECIDED TO TREND DOWN WITH POPS. HAVE NOT MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS...AND HAVE STILL GONE WITH 50 POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 50S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OHIO REMAINING RELATIVELY STEADY WITH TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY BOUNDARY WILL BE EXITING EAST TAKING LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK OUT CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLING BEHIND FRONT WITH MAX TEMPS MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ON SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS DESPITE SUNSHINE AS COOL ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED. DRY AND SEASONAL SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN WARM ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS STILL SHOWING A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST PORTS AS THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION CROSSES. THE TAFS WERE BASED ON SREF PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOISTURE PROFILE TIMING...AS THE NAM AND LAMP SEEM TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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