Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010010 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 810 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LINGER EAST OF PITTSBURGH EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE SLOW-EVOLVING DEFORMATION FIELD AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT SEEMS TO BE DRIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS ALLOWING FOR MUCH MORE MOIST AIR TO INFILTRATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO METRO PITTSBURGH AT THIS HOUR. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD TOP COOLING IN THIS BAND...AND RADAR SIGNATURES REVEAL A FAR BIT OF MESOSCALE FORCING IS LIKELY GOING ON WITHIN THIS BAND. A NICE MESOLOW IS EASILY DIAGNOSED OVER SOMERSET COUNTY AS OF 8 PM...AND IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE PRECIPITATION RATES WITHIN THE BAND OF RAINFALL OVER ITS LOCALE. THIS WHOLE FIELD WITH MESOSCALE-INDUCED HEAVIER RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL MIGRATE WEST AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING ONE HALF TO THREE- QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT DOES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FRIDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ENTERS THE PICTURE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING OUT BY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE RIDGES. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS DIFFER IN SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF A FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE PUSHES FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND POPS WERE BROUGHT FURTHER SOUTH. WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ADVANCING EAST TO WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES SOUTH. TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS MAY COME WITH THESE SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING...BUT A DROP ONLY TO MVFR IS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCES...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG NORTHERN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PULLED EAST TO WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ADVANCING LOW. AS THIS LOW SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO EVENTUALLY DROP TO LOW MVFR CIGS...AND THE NORTHERN THREE SITES FKL/DUJ/BVI TO DROP INTO IFR. HOW FAR SOUTH THESE IFR CONDITIONS ADVANCE IS A BIG QUESTION MARK. WILL STAY ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT FRIDAY...AND PULLS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH IT. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. TAX .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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