Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 152235 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 635 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW.. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT AND THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND VERY LIGHT WIND. THIS CHANGE WAS CLOSEST TO THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY RIDE ALONG THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EAST TOMORROW...BRINGING A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT. THE LATEST BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO THUNDER WAS KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. TROUGH WILL EXIT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY END THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. NO REAL DISCERNIBLE COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...SO THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK TO...IF NOT WARMER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE SHOWERS MAKE IT IN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DAMP PERIOD WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A CROSSING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHUNT UPPER MOISTURE OVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWER...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY AS THE HIGH ERODES AND RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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