Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020055
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
855 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO RULE THE ROOST IN THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIR ALREADY TAKING CONTROL OF THE
ENTIRE REGION. ON THE HEELS OF NORTHERLY FLOW...SLIGHTLY DRIER
DEWPOINTS ARE BEING FILTERED SOUTHWARD. ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY...SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING IN ALL
SECTORS OF THE CWA. THE RESULT LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND CLEAR
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING OFF FROM THE READINGS OF
LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A
BIT...OWING TO DEWPOINTS ALREADY FALLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S IN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

A CONTINUATION OF THE WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW FLAT
CUMULUS...SUNNY SKIES AGAIN SEEM TO BE IN STORE. LIKEWISE...STRONG
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DECENT MIXING. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LACK OF LOW LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO
TODAY...A MIX OUT TO 850 MB SEEMS LIKELY. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL AGAIN JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES JUMP PAST 8C. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS WELL AS
RAISING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES. MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. STILL SOME UNDERSTANDABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO
WHEN SHOWERS MOVE IN...CONSIDERING THE ARRIVAL IS STILL 3 DAYS
OUT. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
CHANCE POPS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BY MONDAY HIGHS WILL
RISE INTO THE 70S IN ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF AS A CLOSED LOW IS
PROJECTED OVER THE WEST STATES WITH RIDGE INFLATION FOR POINTS
EAST.

A CHANCE OF RAIN WAS INCLUDED LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY
OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW
BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET...ALONG WITH ANY REMAINING WIND GUSTS. MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRECLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH TUESDAY
FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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