Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200633
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 20/1200 UTC THRU APR 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES...

SEVERAL STREAMS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL S/WV ENERGY WILL KEEP THINGS
WET FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS PERIOD..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND.  SOUTHERN BRANCH
S/WV ENERGY NOW LIFTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER OH VALLEY..FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY THE WELL DEFINED S/WV APPROACHING THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
MS AND OH RIVER VALLEYS..ARE BEING PRECEDED BY A STRONG ATLANTIC
INFLOW/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
PATTERN..WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  AS THESE S/WVS CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS..THE
STRONGER ATLANTIC INFLOW/MOISTURE INFLOW WILL ALSO LIFT UP THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES..TAKING THE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS WITH IT.  THIS BETTER INFLOW IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY INTO ME LATER IN THIS PERIOD..AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
H5 TROF CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MAINTAINS A
NEARLY SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME INTO NEW ENGLAND.
HIGHER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ATLANTIC
INFLOW REGIME THRU THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND AREAS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME 1-2 INCH RAINS HERE..WHILE LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND A SLOWER INFLOW REGIME INTO PARTS OF ME
SUPPORT SIMILAR 1-2 INCH RAINS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ME COAST.  FOR
THE MOST PART..MODEL QPFS WERE SIMILAR IN THIS IDEA..SO GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THEIR QPFS.  ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY NOW DIVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS SHOULD BE PULLING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING..LIKELY SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED BUT PROGRESSIVE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.


...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND FL...

THE TAIL END OF THE MID MS VALLEY H5 S/WV AND SOME VERY WEAK S/WV
ENERGY IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM COULD KEEP SOME PRE-FRONTAL/COLD
FRONTAL CONVECTION GOING INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT HOURS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES INTO FL.  THERE IS
GENERAL MODEL QPF CONSENSUS FOR ANY GREATER THAN 0.25-0.50 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR FROM THE FL PANHANDLE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA..AND FOLLOWED THAT IDEA ON THE MANUAL QPF.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 231991 233999 238004 243008 250011 253013 258014 268016
      271018 275017 278013 278009 274991 273982 274976 272970
      267964 266961 266956 267947 271930 272922 274917 276916
      283910 288904 296887 299882 304877 309871 312865 313859
      315856 322855 326854 329855 337857 343861 346864 346870
      347881 347886 348888 356885 363881 367879 372878 384877
      398883 404887 409892 419901 423905 431908 437911 446912
      454913 457922 459932 462944 464956 467964 477972 483975
      487975 490974 495973 500973 504972 507970 510970 513968
      518963 524959 529953 534948 538941 546923 553903 555892
      556881 557868 557852 558846 557833 554813 552801 550787
      548776 545766 542757 538745 534734 530726 492682 483669
      473659 467655 461651 453648 445645 442644 438645 429648
      424649 421648 416649 412648 399647 393650 385653 377657
      371661 364666 359671 352676 345682 339688 333695 315715
      310720 304726 299731 293735 283747 275758 260790 256795
      251800 249803 250806 255812 259817 261819 259821 255827
      253834 248850 247858 244866 242875 241878 241885 241896
      243901 246904 251909 255915 253921 251923 248929 244935
      242942 240949 237955 236963 235971 230981
 0.01 522264 512242 509237 504236 503244 500251 496254 492261
      484262 473264 469265 465269 462271 456273 447275 442276
      437279 434282 434286 435288 438293 445295 449296 454294
      459294 465292 472288 483287 488286 491284 495281 498280
      501281 505279 508275 509270 511269 514271 517270 522264
 0.01 445096 445094 441093 440091 437090 432089 426085 416080
      415076 415072 416064 416057 415054 412052 398048 396043
      392041 387044 385045 382042 380037 379033 379029 379024
      381019 380013 377999 373988 363963 359960 354958 350960
      346964 345971 343977 340982 340993 345002 349005 353007
      354009 353018 350022 348028 348033 350035 354038 360039
      364039 365043 365048 363051 358053 356056 357058 361058
      360062 357064 358067 362069 365065 369067 373079 374083
      376086 376094 382094 385093 383087 389087 391085 393087
      394096 392098 394098 398092 401089 406093 405100 405108
      407110 409108 411106 414106 422108 426108 427106 423103
      421101 421097 432100 445096
 0.01 405231 405229 405228 403227 401226 400226 398226 396225
      394225 394226 393228 394229 395231 397232 399232 400232
      402233 404232 405231
 0.01 396203 395200 392198 385196 380191 377186 375183 370181
      363180 351184 346188 344191 345194 345198 347201 348204
      351204 350196 351188 353187 358188 365190 376198 382202
      387205 393205 396203
 0.01 388118 387116 385115 383115 381117 379119 377121 375123
      373125 375127 379126 381124 383122 385120 386120 388118
 0.01 354120 354117 353115 349114 347112 344109 342109 342111
      343114 345114 347117 350119 352121 354120
 0.01 345076 344072 340071 338073 334077 332079 334082 337085
      338091 340094 342091 343085 344078 345076
 0.25 449900 461901 480901 486900 492901 501909 507921 513922
      520914 526911 537907 543896 548883 551860 552833 548809
      542791 535784 528793 525810 525833 525854 525870 519880
      510879 504863 500845 497821 494804 490787 486776 485762
      484755 484750 484743 483736 478727 473719 468711 465705
      463699 463694 462687 461680 456673 450667 442662 435661
      423660 414660 405657 396657 388657 382662 370672 353691
      343706 332720 322731 299752 297754 290758 285764 282771
      282778 283784 281788 273793 269795 266798 263800 261804
      263806 265811 267821 266825 268830 269833 269837 266842
      257862 255869 257873 259876 263878 263882 264892 265897
      269898 273897 277894 286883 297870 302864 304859 304854
      300844 297840 292838 290833 289825 290811 295806 295797
      293788 297781 305767 310760 313757 318755 328756 339754
      350753 360750 369748 375749 379751 387755 391769 396777
      396783 393787 390790 388796 385804 381805 376807 375811
      377817 372826 369835 368840 371841 378837 384830 390821
      393817 398814 402812 407812 401820 394828 390835 389839
      390843 393845 398844 404838 412826 414815 416805 423799
      428795 433794 440797 449804 451813 453821 453830 453838
      452842 452848 453851 457854 462860 464868 466872 462873
      457879 448883 442885 439887 435890 434895 437898 441899
      449900
 0.25 384197 382196 381196 381197 382198 384199 385198 384197
 0.25 364185 365186 367187 368186 368185 365184 364184 363184
      364185
 0.25 266003 267999 267994 265988 262976 259964 257957 254952
      249952 246956 243962 241968 236977 234984 235991 238996
      242999 253004 259005 264005 266003
 0.50 545844 545839 545833 545828 544823 543820 542815 540813
      539818 539823 539826 539831 539837 540842 540845 542849
      544847 545844
 0.50 481839 482830 481821 479811 477802 473793 471785 471776
      471761 474753 475745 473737 471731 468727 464725 455721
      453719 452714 454708 456701 456695 454689 451684 448679
      445675 440673 433673 423672 419673 415669 407663 401661
      396661 390662 385664 375671 369678 365684 363690 364694
      364697 362703 363710 364717 366723 364728 363735 366739
      385745 393750 396758 399763 408766 414766 419766 430767
      436770 440773 446782 452792 461819 472838 474840 477842
      481839
 0.50 283875 284871 282869 279868 277869 275871 273873 272876
      270880 269882 269886 271890 273888 276886 278883 279881
      281879 283877 283875
 0.50 276820 276815 276811 276807 275803 274801 271802 269804
      269806 269810 269812 271816 272820 274820 276820
 0.50 262998 262992 261988 258980 257970 254960 250959 248962
      244970 239977 237986 237990 239993 243996 247997 256000
      259000 262998
 1.00 446700 445692 442689 439689 434693 432698 427702 422703
      413696 411688 407681 404676 399673 394672 385674 380677
      377679 376682 373688 375693 378696 388698 393700 396702
      396707 392719 395733 397738 400744 408754 409756 413756
      417754 419752 417750 416747 418743 422742 423744 427745
      432742 432736 433732 438719 439714 443708 446700
 1.00 256992 256988 255986 253982 252980 250978 249978 246979
      244980 242982 240985 240987 241990 243992 246993 249993
      253994 256992
 1.00 252974 253972 253970 252968 252967 251968 250969 250970
      250972 250974 250975 252975 252974

$$




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