Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FXUS04 KWBC 021811
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 PM EDT SAT MAY 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 03/0000 UTC THRU MAY 04/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS--UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER LAKES

THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE U.S.---CANADIAN
BORDER FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MS VALLEY.  THERE WILL BE A CORRESPONDING STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND INCREASE IN PW VALUES TO
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES DURING SUNDAY.
 CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT--ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE MODERATE
AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CAMP DAY 1. AT THE MOMENT---DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO GO ANY HEAVIER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF .10-.25"+
RANGE FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS---UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES.

SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES

BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST---GREAT BASIN
INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WEAK
BUT SLOWING STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THESE
AREAS---WITH THE TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF DETAILS.  AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS KEPT ON THE LIGHT SIDE---WITH NO MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS DAY 1.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 490961 517911 514880 510863 501847 492844 477848 455862
      433876 416892 412902 411905 413908 416917 422924 426930
      423939 415952 411959 407965 401977 397986 391993 389998
      385999 377003 363009 351015 334020 319024 304026 292030
      288030 288034 291037 294038 302040 311040 317039 321038
      329035 337033 346033 350032 355031 363029 370028 372026
      374028 377029 380031 382035 383040 381043 379046 374046
      369047 361049 358050 356053 354058 355062 358066 372067
      372073 373080 375084 378087 383092 387093 391089 393088
      395085 397083 400084 403086 404095 404100 402103 398103
      395105 389108 383110 377115 376125 378128 381127 393117
      408119 411117 413120 414124 412131 408133 404139 403143
      401148 393156 389162 387165 385170 389173 392170 395167
      397169 400168 402166 407160 409156 411154 414162 416166
      420169 423166 425160 425153 425148 426134 426129 425125
      431118 434112 442113 446108 448104 448099 446091 438085
      436081 438076 442074 446078 451080 451076 448071 445065
      440060 432054 426049 421044 415040 405032 399028 399022
      397018 399015 402012 408008 413008 418007 424002 426999
      427994 428987 437971 440967 443965 448973 453978 453986
      453992 455993 458993 460991 470983 478978 485972 490961
 0.01 456720 453715 447712 444710 438709 432711 426712 424718
      424722 426724 427727 430726 433725 437727 442725 449724
      452724 454722 456720
 0.01 314092 314088 312085 306081 302076 296071 291066 284062
      281064 278067 280072 282074 288079 294083 299087 304091
      308093 313093 314092
 0.01 248820 248817 246815 246811 245808 242808 238809 235814
      234820 233826 234834 237838 242839 245839 247837 246833
      247831 247823 248820
 0.25 479912 477912 475913 474915 472917 470920 468922 467927
      469929 471928 472926 474924 475921 477918 479914 479912
 0.25 465908 466901 465895 463883 460882 457884 452891 442904
      435921 428938 424956 423963 424966 427963 429959 432951
      437945 440942 443940 447939 450941 456937 461930 465910
      465908
 0.50 449923 449920 447919 443917 438918 436922 435926 433932
      431937 430942 433942 437939 439935 442932 445928 447925
      449923

$$




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