Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 011821
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
220 PM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 02/0000 UTC THRU MAY 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

MID ATLANTIC

THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF
EASTERN NC EARLY DAY 1---PROGRESSING STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT.  ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH EARLY DAY 1 AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CENTER PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP
UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC UNDERNEATH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT---BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH LIGHT AREAL
AVERAGE AMOUNTS.

LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS

THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1
FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES EASTWARD FROM CO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR POTENTIAL OF TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO
FORM.  ONE INITIALLY OVER EASTERN CO EARLY DAY 1---SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS---WITH A SECOND AREA FARTHER
EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHEAST KS INTO NW
MO/SE IA.  IN BOTH AREAS---PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RANGE GIVEN MODEST PW
VALUES.

ELSEWHERE---MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A FAST
MOVING FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 536207 538194 536188 530174 522162 514152 510151 508148
      504150 504160 503163 502168 503178 502183 503186 511197
      517202 521207 525212 527215 530216 534212 536207
 0.01 506955 505942 497941 486952 476964 467976 460993 457005
      456015 456018 459015 463008 466004 468000 472994 478987
      484982 494972 497970 500966 504960 506955
 0.01 429747 423747 422744 420742 409744 401767 395770 393772
      389771 393766 388764 387766 382767 376766 363766 351772
      347775 348779 350780 354780 360776 362775 364778 370778
      378777 382776 384774 387773 390773 386777 380780 372783
      369788 369791 371791 387789 397783 402779 407774 414765
      418760 423756 427750 429747
 0.01 427125 428118 427113 425108 421104 418102 417097 417093
      418079 417068 416059 411051 401050 412027 407023 410016
      412011 412004 412997 414989 414978 412973 413968 417966
      423966 425963 424954 421947 414943 409936 405928 400934
      396931 394933 392938 391945 391950 389956 385976 400984
      402984 401989 400004 399009 398016 401019 403021 400022
      390022 387020 388016 387012 385009 382005 380999 378995
      375994 372997 370002 368007 368015 368021 370026 370031
      369036 367041 364042 356043 354047 354051 356053 356058
      357062 360067 365068 377080 385077 388079 393081 396083
      399081 402079 408078 410082 409086 406093 407097 407103
      410108 413113 417114 418119 418124 414130 409136 408143
      404146 399152 396159 394163 387169 382178 380182 381186
      374183 369183 370187 377194 383197 388195 387193 386190
      387187 389183 395175 400167 404161 409155 412153 415154
      418152 421146 424136 425128 427125
 0.01 377742 375733 375726 374722 372718 369713 367712 362713
      358716 354721 349725 341728 337732 330744 330750 334756
      340758 346755 349756 351758 354760 357760 360761 364760
      370758 374752 376746 377742
 0.01 344087 345083 343078 340076 334075 331077 330081 331086
      333090 334095 336098 342098 342094 342090 344087 344087
 0.01 320097 321091 319086 310083 303078 297073 291068 287066
      282066 280068 280074 285079 293083 301087 307092 316097
      320097
 0.01 265800 264798 261797 253799 250803 247807 244813 243815
      244819 248818 252817 253818 259820 261819 261815 259809
      262805 265800
 0.25 390041 391036 389032 387031 385029 382027 379027 377028
      376033 376037 378039 380041 382042 385044 388043 390041
 0.25 361740 360739 358738 356739 355739 353740 352742 352743
      351744 352745 353746 354747 356747 357746 359745 360743
      360741 361740

$$





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