Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 190623
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 19/1200 UTC THRU APR 20/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

THIS PART OF THE NATION WILL BE IMPACTED BY 2 STREAMS OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THIS PERIOD..WITH THE UPPER MS VALLEY COMING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM H5 TROF MOVING
EASTWARD/EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/CANADIAN
ROCKIES..WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY ARE AFFECTED BY THE OPENING UP AND INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED H5 LOW.  PRETTY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS
THRUOUT THE ENTIRE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFS ALONG WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING EITHER
THE COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROF SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
RAINS/CONVECTION MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY BACK INTO
PARTS OF KS AND SOUTHERN NE.  THE REALLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TIED UP IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM/CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES..AND THINGS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE THRU THIS ENTIRE AREA..SO
KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT BEST ON THE MODERATE SIDE..GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0.50-1.00 INCH AND IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
QPF GUIDANCE.


...SOUTHEASTERN/MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

THE WELL DEFINED S/WV NOW LIFTING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND
MOVING EASTWARD THIS PERIOD WILL LEAD TO A BACKING MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REGIME FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES..SUPPORTING A
MODERATE/HEAVY AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT.  THE LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION..BETWEEN A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
S/WV AND THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST..WHICH WILL RESULT IN A COMBINATION OF INCREASING GULF AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING PULLED INLAND.  THE STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION VIA THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND THE RESULTING
RESURGENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWATS WILL HELP FOSTER THE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION..WITH THE
STRONGEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE VERY MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH THE RETREATING WARM FRONT
AND LARGER SCALE FORCING SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES.  WPC CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING HI
RES GUIDANCE THRU THE GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST..WITH MORE OF A
MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS USED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES/OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
WHERE MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 555930 555919 555908 555903 553898 550891 546881 545876
      544869 537858 532851 527849 512845 500835 495829 492820
      480790 473775 465761 455751 449744 443741 429733 416728
      406724 399722 394720 363719 357720 355719 347723 335729
      327733 322739 310752 305756 300759 293761 287765 275774
      267786 265789 266794 267797 266802 267807 269809 276812
      278816 279821 276824 272825 256832 251834 250840 248846
      250854 253861 254867 253870 253889 252892 252898 252908
      251917 252925 257968 255971 251971 244971 239973 235979
      236983 239985 247987 247992 245995 242002 245006 249007
      254007 258008 261012 263015 268017 272018 276016 280010
      280000 279993 287985 297977 305964 321961 329960 335959
      339960 350966 360978 367984 369989 370994 368001 368010
      368020 369023 369029 372038 375040 377037 382033 386027
      396018 402014 405012 407006 411987 418968 421962 425958
      436951 440950 442952 446952 450954 453957 456960 460967
      478993 480004 478009 475014 474025 474029 477034 481037
      482035 486035 491038 498043 511040 521033 522028 525023
      529015 532007 534003 535996 541977 546957 550944 553936
      555930
 0.01 464136 464123 463120 460120 458114 460111 462112 464107
      463102 457098 441087 441082 442079 444078 447079 450078
      447073 445070 439068 435066 432061 428056 425053 418051
      415047 410039 407035 402032 396032 394037 393045 388045
      385046 379045 373044 368043 364046 360047 356053 356058
      359060 364061 366064 370068 372073 374076 373081 375085
      385088 387091 388086 394085 400086 404081 408080 413077
      417076 420079 421081 421089 422093 420095 416099 414101
      411099 408095 406095 405099 403108 400110 400114 409119
      415120 417116 419112 422112 423110 426108 433114 438115
      443112 447114 451119 454125 452132 453135 457133 462137
      464136
 0.01 433073 433072 431071 431070 429068 428069 426070 424072
      422074 422077 423079 424081 425082 426082 427081 429080
      430080 432078 432075 433073
 0.01 385205 387201 386197 381193 377189 373185 367182 362181
      361183 362186 365190 370194 373198 378202 379204 383205
      385205
 0.01 389082 388080 386079 385081 386083 388084 389082
 0.01 356120 356118 354115 351112 349112 348110 344109 344111
      345114 347116 348119 350121 352122 354122 356120
 0.01 347057 345054 343054 341054 339055 338055 336055 334055
      332054 330054 330055 329057 330058 332059 334059 336059
      337059 339059 341059 343059 345059 347057 347057
 0.01 342098 342096 342094 342093 341091 340091 339089 338089
      337091 338093 338095 338097 340098 342098 342098
 0.01 317883 314882 309884 304888 291898 284902 275903 274907
      274913 274925 274947 276956 278959 281959 284952 288945
      297931 298928 299922 302914 302909 304905 308898 311892
      316885 317883
 0.25 463931 474933 480938 483945 485954 488964 492970 497973
      505974 522968 530963 536956 541944 542928 542911 539894
      535879 529869 518865 504864 492863 486860 477861 471861
      470856 471841 472832 472823 468816 466809 464800 463794
      461790 457787 453782 447766 442762 437763 433766 430770
      425769 421764 414750 405744 393740 380737 373736 366737
      352744 343749 331754 321760 317764 312769 308776 305782
      304788 303795 300800 293803 287807 286812 288816 288820
      286822 284827 279836 270847 265856 263864 262872 260879
      260884 262888 267890 272888 283882 289881 294878 303872
      312867 319864 326862 330863 333865 336871 332886 329891
      327893 327898 328900 328905 326912 325915 326918 330920
      334919 341919 347923 347928 345930 337939 334942 333946
      336947 354947 360948 368949 377948 381949 382952 382965
      384972 387975 398981 396986 392991 382001 378008 379013
      381014 387012 392009 396004 399997 403986 406971 409964
      412958 419949 430940 440933 446930 453929 463931
 0.25 459869 459866 457864 452862 445862 442861 439863 437869
      432873 431881 432885 434886 439887 444885 447882 452877
      456874 459869
 0.25 434097 433095 433094 431093 430092 429091 428091 427091
      428092 428094 429095 430097 431097 432098 434097
 0.25 372053 372052 370051 368051 367052 366052 365052 363053
      361053 360054 360056 361056 362056 363055 365055 367054
      368054 370053 372053 372053
 0.50 418943 425935 431928 439923 446921 454920 462919 470921
      480926 488930 497936 509949 521951 529945 535921 533901
      533891 532886 530883 525878 519874 505873 498874 491877
      484877 476879 471883 466888 462892 455893 450894 443896
      436899 428900 424897 418894 415894 412892 407887 404881
      406877 409875 412873 416873 420872 422868 424863 425858
      426854 428850 432846 438845 444844 449838 450831 448822
      444817 440810 442801 441790 440779 440777 439775 434777
      431783 428792 424811 422817 419822 415826 411823 405820
      398817 390817 385816 383813 384809 389804 394801 400795
      410786 413778 414774 415767 413759 410755 401748 395746
      388744 375742 367744 361748 356754 353756 348756 342756
      334759 327762 321766 318770 315775 313781 314790 308804
      307807 304810 301813 298819 294825 286835 276848 273855
      271861 270867 271873 276875 281875 289872 296869 308863
      313860 322857 330855 338856 356877 367880 372884 374889
      372894 370902 370909 369913 364917 360922 357929 355932
      355935 357937 361936 366932 372927 378923 387927 397930
      401930 405929 411931 408938 404945 400951 398958 402960
      405958 410953 418943
 0.50 515918 515913 512908 509905 505904 502906 501914 503919
      504925 507929 509929 512923 513920 515918
 1.00 490906 490904 489899 488896 487892 485891 482891 479892
      477895 476897 476902 477907 478910 480911 482912 484912
      487911 490909 490906
 1.00 409847 407840 403836 399831 396827 392827 390829 389832
      386834 385836 386840 391841 393844 393849 395854 401853
      407850 409847
 1.00 402767 400762 397758 392755 387755 382756 380757 379761
      379766 374769 367776 356781 348786 348789 350791 351795
      349800 345803 342807 342812 345816 344822 342834 343840
      347841 353838 355835 361826 368819 380802 383798 386795
      394788 397784 399780 400772 402767
 1.00 315852 314846 310844 305845 301848 298850 295853 293856
      292862 297862 300861 304859 309856 312854 315852
 1.00 312828 309826 306828 302831 300834 297836 294840 291843
      291846 292849 294848 297845 300842 303840 306837 309833
      311829 312828
 1.50 388781 385777 381778 373786 362792 359796 355801 353806
      350813 348827 348830 351833 355828 363820 367816 371810
      373806 376799 378795 383791 387787 388781
 2.00 371804 371799 370795 366796 361800 358805 356810 354816
      352822 351827 356825 361821 364816 368811 370806 371804

$$





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