Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 251820
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 26/0000 UTC THRU APR 27/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CNTL/ERN GULF COAST...

MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY STELLAR ACRS THIS REGION OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MRNG AS MOST COMPLETELY MISSED OR UNDERPERFORMED WITH MCS
THAT DVLPD ACRS THE UPR TX COASTAL AREA THIS MRNG.  THIS SYSTEM
APPEARED TO BE PARTIALLY TIED TO JET STREAK THAT PUSHED ACRS NRN
MEX/S TX REGION THIS MRNG.  EXPECT REMNANTS OF MCS TO QUICKLY MOVE
ACRS THE ERN GULF COAST REGION THIS EVENING FEEDING OFF OF
RESIDUAL AFTN CAPE ENERGY AHEAD OF IT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY
FROM MRNG ACTIVITY ACRS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE PSBL ALONG THE CNTL/ERN GULF COAST ON SUN AS ZONE OF
HIER PWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS THE NRN GULF AND LEFT OVER
MESO BNDRIES/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE HELPING TO TRIGGER ACTIVITY.
STAYED RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND LIGHT WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH
LACK OF UPR TRIGGER AND GENLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.

...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

UPR LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SHEER EWD
ACRS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/CNTL APLCNS REGION BEFORE MOVING OF THE
MID ATLC COAST SUN MRNG.  DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO OVERALL DOWNTREND IN PCPN AMOUNTS WITH
TIME.  THE BETTER UVVS SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY SEWD THIS EVENING
TOWARD PARTS OF ERN KY AND THE CNTL APLCNS REGION CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BNDRY WHERE AFTN CLEARING MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF REMNANT VORT ENERGY PUSHING ESEWD ACRS THE
AREA.  THE NAM WAS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS ACRS
THIS AREA PARTLY DUE TO MODEL FCST SOUNDS DVLPG A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY AND HIER LOW LEVEL MSTR ACRS THIS AREA BY LATE SAT
AFTN/EVENING.  THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER
THAN CONSENSUS...SO SOME MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WAS PREFERRED
HEREWITH LATEST 12Z CANADIAN GLOB/UKMET SUPPORTING AMOUNTS SIMILAR
TO THE 00Z EC WITH .50 TO NEARLY 1 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS FROM ERN
KY INTO SW VA/NE TN/WRN NC AND EXTREME SRN WV.


...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES AND CNTL/NRN HI PLAINS...

STG JET ENERGY DIVING SEWD ALONG THE PAC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP CARVE OUT A HIGH AMPLIFIED UPR TROF ACRS THE GT BASIN WITH
GENL AGREEMENT THAT SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS
REGION ON SUN WHILE TURNING MORE EWD LATER IN THE DAY.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT SYNOPTIC-WISE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE 5H CENTER..WITH THE 00Z EC A TAD ON THE WEAKER SIDE BUT
OTHERWISE CLUSTERED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE TRACK
OF THE MAIN CENTER.  THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES LIFTING
NEWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT MAX DRIVING ACRS SRN CA INITIALLY THAT
WILL BE COME INTO PLAY TO HELP FOCUS THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
PARTICULARLY ACRS THE HI PLAINS THE ROCKIES.  S/WV LIFTING NEWD
THRU ERN MT THIS EVENING WHILE HELP SHOVE PAC COLD FRONT EWD INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS THOUGH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATRN WILL KEEP FRONT
FROM MAKING MUCH FURTHER EWD PROGRESS THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS.
INCREASING SEWD FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD
THRU THE NCNTL STATES WILL INCREASE MSTR FLUX INTO THE STALLED
FRONT THIS EVENING WHICH ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WEAK
INSTABILITY/CAPE DVLPG FROM ERN CO NWD INTO WRN SD... POTNL WILL
EXIST FOR MDT CONVECTIVE RAINS TO DVLP AND PERHAPS SOME HEAVIER
ISOLD AMOUNTS GIVEN EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.  THE HI RES NAM IS QUITE HEAVY WITH AMOUNTS HERE
AND WHILE CAN`T COMPLETE RULE OUT POTNL FOR HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
CELLS...EXPECT ANY RUNOFF CONCERNS TO BE RATHER ISOLD GIVEN PWS
ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH.  BY LATE SUN...EXPECT THE MORE
ORGANIZED PCPN TO SHIFT SWD INTO CO WITH INCREASING UPR LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IN RIGHT UPR QUAD OF UPR LOW AND CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN 85H ELY UPSLOPE FLOW.  FARTHER WEST...GENLY AGREED WITH
CONSENSUS OF MODELS IN SUPPORTING .50 TO NEARLY 1 INCH AMOUNTS
ACRS THE MOGOLLON RIM AREA GIVEN FAVORABLE TRACK OF UPR VORT ACRS
THE AREA AND MODEST 85H/7H SW FLOW INTO THE REGION.  WITH MINOR
EXCEPTIONS...MANUAL QPF PROG CLOSELY FOLLOWED CONTINUITY GIVEN
REASONABLY GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL AGREEMENT.  SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN/ROCKIES REGION ...ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE WASATCH...SW CO MTNS AND TETONS.   PLEASE SEE QPFHSD FOR
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 475618 482621 489626 493630 497636 500646 503661 504672
      504683 501691 499696 496699 490704 483705 479699 475699
      474705 472708 474712 475722 475727 473727 470726 469730
      467734 460748 455752 450753 447751 444749 444743 442740
      438738 425732 423730 423725 419722 415722 415720 417716
      419711 423710 427709 429707 434700 437697 441696 444696
      448698 452696 453693 454685 456682 460679 464677 467673
      465665 461659 458651 457645 458640 459624
 0.01 562010 554995 552992 547992 542991 538989 501997 492997
      488999 483999 480999 478003 475006 471008 462008 454008
      446007 442007 439008 402006 396006 392004 389004 387002
      382003 378004 372005 372011 369012 364007 360998 358988
      356979 355971 352963 349955 346953 344956 344962 343969
      342972 337973 317973 307968 302968 298966 292966 288968
      286970 287975 281981 280985 282987 296993 302998 308001
      313007 320010 340012 346016 351019 353023 356027 356031
      355036 354039 351039 335048 333050 328050 319046 316045
      313047 308052 307056 306061 305066 304070 303075 300077
      295082 298090 304094 311100 314107 317109 319111 321115
      329121 335141 337144 340146 345147 349150 355157 361163
      363165 366165 371166 373164 379158 384154 387152 392151
      398150 401146 403142 408141 411142 412144 408149 403152
      400155 398160 397164 396166 393170 389171 387175 392181
      396182 398186 401190 402189 402183 401178 403174 407173
      411174 413177 417180 418182 421192 425199 431197 432190
      431183 429182 426185 423183 419177 420173 422170 427172
      431174 434173 434169 432169 429165 426155 425152 425146
      426132 430131 433134 434137 435142 434154 435158 438161
      445165 451172 453174 458176 463176 463173 463165 463162
      465161 472162 475163 476167 477172 480176 485185 485193
      486197 487201 488205 490204 495201 501198 503194 504191
      506190 510192 512189 514186 514182 516171 515167 517168
      520172 520170 521164 520161 514152 508146 494132 485128
      477122 476115 476109 474100 473093 470090 465083 461079
      461074 462070 466063 471056 474055 479055 482057 486059
      490062 492067 496076 501085 506092 510095 515097 519099
      525100 538091 546077 548069 551061 554049 557040 561023
      561014 562010
 0.01 515269 515259 513249 510243 506237 500231 498231 497234
      498239 501246 499251 496249 475228 471227 467225 470220
      474220 476220 476217 472216 470217 467218 465222 467225
      468228 465228 459231 455235 450240 448244 447250 445253
      440253 434254 432256 433259 439265 444270 448276 451283
      452293 455299 459305 467309 472311 475310 480304 485303
      499303 505300 508293 515269
 0.01 472680 472678 470676 469679 470681 471682 472680
 0.01 452225 452220 451217 449217 448219 445220 442218 436218
      431220 425221 422226 426230 431230 437229 442228 447227
      452225
 0.01 407817 404788 403780 400772 397758 390739 386728 384721
      385717 382703 381698 379689 378684 372681 362678 357677
      351679 345680 342683 335688 333691 330695 325703 320711
      313719 309723 303726 298729 295733 291741 287748 285752
      285756 287769 288776 290782 289787 289795 290812 288816
      283818 275824 274826 277829 282834 290838 291844 291851
      294861 294870 294877 294884 295889 295902 289908 286914
      283926 282930 282935 284936 288939 293938 298935 299930
      299906 302904 305900 306897 309892 313885 314879 314872
      321871 330865 335861 335856 336850 336844 335819 336813
      338809 341804 344807 348813 350819 351826 350831 346841
      347851 353851 357853 358857 362861 370880 375893 382901
      388908 393909 397907 403906 405903 406894 402867 393843
      391837 391831 394831 397834 400839 403841 406838 407834
      407822 407817
 0.01 387205 387202 385199 381195 373187 371186 367184 361183
      355183 350184 345188 344191 345194 345198 347201 350206
      352207 353204 350199 351195 352191 356188 360189 363191
      368194 376202 380206 384210 387205
 0.01 345182 344177 344173 343167 340164 331162 325159 320158
      309157 307160 308164 317167 324172 328174 331173 335173
      338175 343183 345182
 0.01 276962 276957 272958 268961 266964 263967 260970 257973
      256978 259981 264981 268979 271976 273972 275968 276962
      276962
 0.25 552026 553019 552014 549012 545012 532017 526021 522026
      517032 512037 509039 507043 506052 505059 505066 505071
      506076 511082 518085 525087 530086 536081 540075 544067
      546057 547046 550036 552026
 0.25 502278 498266 493258 488254 483252 474252 466255 461257
      458262 458270 459275 463281 466284 472284 475283 480280
      484279 489280 494281 499282 502278
 0.25 493140 492138 492137 491136 489135 487134 486136 487138
      488139 489140 490140 492142 493140
 0.25 470148 470143 468140 465136 461132 456129 450129 447134
      445138 445142 445147 446150 452153 455154 460152 466150
      470148
 0.25 473036 473031 472027 469025 465025 455024 446023 433021
      421020 405017 400017 395018 391024 391031 394036 395042
      392044 389045 385043 381038 376033 370028 367027 367033
      370040 374046 376051 377055 376060 366068 362069 359072
      357075 359079 360083 358086 353089 348086 343084 335082
      327084 326088 326092 327102 327107 329111 333115 341122
      347126 349128 350133 352136 357136 363131 367125 368115
      371108 374104 380102 385097 388095 391096 389107 380116
      375127 377133 381134 384132 389127 397124 403126 409125
      418118 447114 450113 454113 457108 458101 455094 451089
      446084 444082 446080 448078 450073 449069 450060 454054
      462045 469041 473036
 0.25 409087 409084 408082 407081 406080 404081 403083 402086
      401088 400090 399092 399093 401095 401096 401095 403094
      404093 405091 407090 408089 409089 409087
 0.25 384768 383760 382752 379736 378729 379723 378716 377710
      373698 369693 364691 359691 353692 349694 345696 338703
      331713 327720 320728 312732 307737 305742 304747 304755
      306767 307774 309780 313783 318782 325776 333770 347781
      348775 347769 348763 354763 358764 362769 362774 361778
      362783 358805 357817 356824 355833 357838 361842 367849
      371860 373866 377869 381867 384863 385856 385852 383838
      382829 381820 384795 383779 384768
 0.25 347998 347995 347993 347991 346990 344989 342990 341990
      339991 337992 336993 336995 337996 338997 339997 340999
      342999 344999 346999 347998
 0.25 313830 313815 311808 309803 306799 303800 300805 297809
      295813 294819 293826 294832 298844 300857 304857 305851
      308840 313831 313830
 0.25 304884 304882 304880 304878 304876 304874 304871 303870
      302872 301874 301876 301878 302880 302882 302884 303885
      304884
 0.50 540057 541048 541041 536033 533030 528031 523036 517043
      515049 515056 514072 515078 519080 526081 531080 534078
      538070 540057
 0.50 493271 492271 492269 491267 490265 488264 487262 485261
      484263 483264 482265 483266 485267 486269 487270 489271
      491272 492272 493271
 0.50 476265 475264 473264 471264 471265 473265 475265 476265
 0.50 462035 459031 453030 445029 434027 430027 425025 416022
      407020 402019 398023 398028 400031 406039 408047 406055
      409063 412067 415068 417065 415061 412059 411054 414051
      417052 420056 427061 435059 441054 448049 454042 460037
      462035
 0.50 453100 452095 447091 442088 435087 428085 425084 423089
      425091 429095 434097 440096 446097 451101 453100
 0.50 407112 407106 403108 400110 396112 392113 389115 386118
      388122 392121 395118 399116 403114 407112 407112
 0.50 401076 400072 397073 394075 392075 385076 378072 371074
      368076 370079 375084 380085 387087 393084 399079 401076
 0.50 375728 375721 373713 369705 366702 362699 357698 353699
      349700 344704 340711 335721 330728 323736 312737 309740
      308748 309758 310764 314768 318769 322767 330760 337756
      342754 348755 357755 366759 371757 373754 375742 375729
      375728
 0.50 385054 385050 384047 382045 381042 379040 377037 375036
      373034 371035 372037 374039 376042 377044 378046 380049
      381051 383054 385054
 0.50 378809 377798 376798 374800 370797 368799 365803 362809
      361814 359825 358830 360834 365838 368842 372853 374855
      376851 376846 375830 376823 377819 378809
 0.50 356122 354117 351112 347108 345102 344095 342092 338092
      333092 332101 332108 337112 341115 345119 350122 354123
      356122
 1.00 418029 417028 416027 414026 412025 411026 409026 407028
      407031 407033 408035 409035 410036 412036 414034 415033
      416032 416031 417030 418029
 1.00 369736 369727 366721 361719 356721 351726 348731 346736
      345743 346748 349749 356747 361748 366746 369739 369736
 1.50 365733 364728 360726 357728 354732 352735 349739 347743
      348746 350745 353742 357740 362740 364738 365734 365733

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.