Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 202059 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 459 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 455 PM ESTF: HAVE UPDATED POPS/TIMING AND WORDING OF SVR THREAT THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE THREAT PRIOR TO 00Z FOR THE REGION SE OF I-95. MORE LATER. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED UP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE PA/SRN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FIRE IN THE WARM SECTOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWRD EARLY TONIGHT. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT W -- 03 AM E. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS ARE UPDATING NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR TIMING OF STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM NEARING KRDG AT 21Z. DIFFICULT FCST FOR TAF SITES WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING AND NOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE POST WARM FRONT MIXING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SRN NJ AND DE/SE PA WITH VFR IN MANY AREAS. MVFR/IFR ACROSS KRDG-KPNE AND NORTH WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS EXPECTED...LOW CONFID IN TIMING...AREAS ATTM. TUE...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR WEATHER FOR TUE. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS. FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...O`HARA/DRAG 459P SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA 459P MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA

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